Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 8.907302e-05 0.000106 0.000125 0.000146 0.000170 0.000194 0.000222
2024-10-27 6.770740e-05 0.000090 0.000116 0.000147 0.000182 0.000222 0.000268
2024-11-03 5.203059e-05 0.000076 0.000104 0.000140 0.000182 0.000231 0.000289
2024-11-10 4.312545e-05 0.000069 0.000100 0.000142 0.000192 0.000252 0.000324
2024-11-17 3.460272e-05 0.000060 0.000093 0.000138 0.000194 0.000261 0.000344
2024-11-24 2.902284e-05 0.000055 0.000090 0.000139 0.000201 0.000277 0.000374
2024-12-01 2.423781e-05 0.000050 0.000086 0.000138 0.000206 0.000289 0.000397
2024-12-08 1.894661e-05 0.000043 0.000080 0.000133 0.000205 0.000295 0.000413
2024-12-15 1.519509e-05 0.000038 0.000075 0.000130 0.000207 0.000303 0.000430
2024-12-22 1.221204e-05 0.000035 0.000071 0.000129 0.000209 0.000312 0.000450
2024-12-29 1.046963e-05 0.000032 0.000070 0.000130 0.000216 0.000327 0.000476
2025-01-05 8.492990e-06 0.000030 0.000067 0.000129 0.000219 0.000337 0.000496
2025-01-12 5.823332e-06 0.000025 0.000062 0.000125 0.000218 0.000343 0.000514
2025-01-19 4.444732e-06 0.000023 0.000060 0.000126 0.000226 0.000361 0.000548
2025-01-26 2.625379e-06 0.000018 0.000054 0.000119 0.000221 0.000362 0.000558
2025-02-02 1.956732e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000121 0.000230 0.000380 0.000592
2025-02-09 1.106871e-06 0.000014 0.000049 0.000117 0.000229 0.000386 0.000609
2025-02-16 7.259481e-07 0.000013 0.000047 0.000118 0.000235 0.000402 0.000640
2025-02-23 3.954136e-07 0.000011 0.000045 0.000117 0.000239 0.000413 0.000664
2025-03-02 1.408877e-07 0.000009 0.000042 0.000114 0.000237 0.000417 0.000679
2025-03-09 3.409944e-08 0.000007 0.000039 0.000111 0.000237 0.000424 0.000697
2025-03-16 3.001167e-09 0.000006 0.000037 0.000109 0.000239 0.000433 0.000719
2025-03-23 4.927713e-13 0.000006 0.000036 0.000111 0.000246 0.000449 0.000750